German hospitality in 2026: higher revenue on paper, lower in real terms

In 2025 hospitality revenue was 1.4% higher than the year before in nominal terms, but 2.1% lower in real, price-adjusted terms, according to provisional figures from the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis). Restaurants and bars lost 2.2% in real terms, accommodation 2.0%.

The gap to 2019 is wide: in 2024 real revenue was 12.6% below the pre-pandemic level, even though nominal revenue was 10.4% higher. Businesses are selling less at higher prices. The trend continues: in the first half of 2026 real revenue fell by another 5.2%.

According to the Federal Employment Agency, about 1.12 million people worked in hospitality in jobs subject to social insurance in September 2025, roughly the same as in 2019. On top of that there were about 1.13 million marginal (minijob) employees in June 2025, 6.7% more than in 2019. The industry association DEHOGA puts total employment at 2.2 million.

For businesses this means a large part of every team works in minijobs, often alongside another job. That makes rotas more flexible, but also more exposed to short-notice gaps.

In March 2026, 19,063 hospitality vacancies were registered with the Federal Employment Agency, against 38,948 in March 2019. According to the KfW-ifo skilled labour barometer, 26.7% of restaurants and 27.9% of accommodation businesses still said in October 2025 that a lack of skilled staff was holding them back, down from 40% of restaurants in April 2025.

KfW attributes the decline to the weak economy, not to an easier labour market. Fewer guests means fewer hires. The Federal Employment Agency still lists cooks among the occupations in short supply.

The statutory minimum wage rose to €12.82 on 1 January 2025 and to €13.90 on 1 January 2026, and will rise to €14.60 per hour on 1 January 2027. That is about 8.4% and 5.0% in two steps.

With real revenue falling, every bad hire and every unplanned gap in the rota now costs more than it used to.

Precisely because margins are tightening, careful selection pays off. Businesses that plan early, describe the role clearly and onboard new staff in a structured way lose less time and money to turnover.

Candidates exist, but they do not automatically fit the shift times, the team and the requirements. Screening is the part of hiring that costs managers the most time during day-to-day operations.